Project links

Scientific articles

In press

Bates A, Bird T, Stuart-Smith R, Wernberg T, Sunday J, Barrett N, Dulvy N, Edgar G, Frusher S, Hobday A, Pecl G, Smale D, Mccarthy M. Distinguishing geographic range shifts from artefacts of detectability and sampling effort. Diversity and Distributions. In press

Hobday, A. J., R. H. Bustamante, A. Farmery, A. Fleming, S. Frusher, B. S. Green, L. Lim-Camacho, J. Innes, S. Jennings, A. Norman-Lopez, S. Pascoe, G. T. Pecl, E. E. Plaganyi, P. Schrobback, O. Thebaud, L. Thomas and E. I. van Putten. Growth opportunities for marine fisheries and aquaculture industries in a changing climate. Applied climate change adaptation research. J. Palutikof, J. Barnett, S. L. Boulter and D. Rissik, Wiley. In press

Pecl GT, Ward T, Doubleday Z, Clarke S, Day J, Dixon C, Frusher S, Gibbs P, Hobday A, Hutchinson N, Jennings S, Jones K, Li X, Spooner D, and Stoklosa R (accepted pending minor change). Rapid assessment of fisheries species sensitivity to climate change in south east Australia. Climatic Change. In press


Bates AE, Pecl GT, Frusher S, Hobday AJ, Wernberg T, Smale DA, Dulvy N, Edgar GJ, Feng M, Fulton EA, Hill N, Holbrook NJ, Radford B, Slawinski D, Sunday JM, Thompson PA, Watson R (2014). Evaluating pathways of geographic range extensions and contractions. Global Environmental Change 26 : 27–38

Dutra, L.X.C.; Ellis, N.; Boschetti, F.; Dichmont, C.M.; Perez, P. and de la Mare, W. (2014) Barriers to adaptive water quality management: a retrospective evaluation of decisions in South East Queensland, Australia. AMBIO, online first:


Fleming A, Hobday AJ, Farmery A. van Putten I, Pecl GT, Green B, Lim-Camacho L (2014) Climate change risks and adaptation options across Australian seafood supply chains - a preliminary assessment. Climate Risk Management. 1 (2014) 39–50. DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2013.12.003

Frusher, Stewart D., Alistair J. Hobday, Sarah M. Jennings, Colin Creighton, Dallas D’Silva, Marcus Haward, Neil J. Holbrook, Melissa Nursey-Bray, Gretta T. Pecl, Ingrid van Putten (2014) The short history of research in a marine climate change hotspot – from anecdote to adaptation in south-east Australia. Reviews in Fish Biology and FisheriesDOI: 10.1007/s11160-013-9325-7.

Frusher S, Hobday AJ, Jennings SM, Pecl GT, Haward M, Nursey-Bray M, Holbrook N, van Putten I, Creighton C, D’Silva D (2014). History of adaptation research in a marine climate change hotspot – from anecdote to action in south-east Australia. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries DOI 10.1007/s11160-013-9325-7,

Hobday A and Pecl GT (2014). Identification of global marine hotspots: sentinels for change and vanguards for adaptation. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 24:415–425, DOI 10.1007/s11160-013-9326-6,

Leith, P., K O’Toole, M. Haward, B. Coffey, C. Rees, E . Ogier (2014) Analysis of Operating environments; A diagnostic model linking science, society and policy for sustainability. Environmental Science & Policy DOI :

Leith, Peat, Emily Ogier, Marcus Haward (2014) Science and social license: defining environmental sustainability of Atlantic Salmon aquaculture in south-eastern Tasmania, Australia submitted to Social Epistemology, 28: 3-4 : 277-296DOI: 10.1080/02691728.2014.922641

Leith, Peat, Emily Ogier, Gretta Pecl, Eriko Hoshino, Julie Davidson, Marcus Haward (2014). Towards a diagnostic approach to climate adaptation for fisheries. Climatic Change. 122:55-66.Published online 31 October 2013 DOI:10.1007/s10584-013-0984-0.

Lim-Camacho L, Hobday AJ, Bustamante RH, Farmery A, Fleming A, Frusher S, Green BS, Norman-Lopez A, Pecl GT, Plaganyi EE, Schrobback P, Thebaud O, Thomas L, van Putten I (2014) Facing the wave of change: Stakeholder perspectives on climate adaptation for Australian seafood supply chains. Regional Environmental Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-014-0670-4

Norman-Lopez, A., S. Pascoe, O. Thebaud, E. I. van Putten, J. Innes, S. Jennings, A. J. Hobday, B. Green and E. Plaganyi (2014). Price integration in the Australian rock lobster industry: implications for management and climate change adaptation. Australian Journal of Agriculture and Resource Economics 58(1): 43-59 DOI: 10.1111/1467-8489.12020.

Pecl GT, Hobday AJ, Frusher SF, Sauer WHH, Bates AE (2014) Ocean warming hotspots provide early warning laboratories for climate change impacts. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries. 24: 409-413,

Plaganyi EE, van Putten I, Thebaud O, Hobday AJ, Innes J, Lim-Camacho L, Norman-Lopez A, Bustamante RH, Farmery A, Fleming A, Frusher S, Green B, Hoshino E, Jennings S, Pecl GT, Pascoe S, Schrobback P, Thomas L (2014) A Quantitative Metric to Identify Critical Elements within Seafood Supply Networks. PLoS ONE 9(3): e91833. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0091833

Plagányi É, Punt A, Hillary R, Morello E, Thebaud O, Hutton T, Pillans R, Thorson J, Fulton EA, Smith ADT, Smith F, Bayliss P, Haywood M, Lyne V, Rothlisberg P (2014) Multispecies fisheries management and conservation: tactical applications using models of intermediate complexity. Fish Fisheries 15:1-22 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-2979.2012.00488.x

Ramos J, Pecl GT, Moltschaniwskyj NA, Strugnell JM, León RI, Semmens JM (2014) Body size, growth and life span of the range extending Octopus tetricus: implications for establishment in south-eastern Australia. PLoS One. 9(8): e103480. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0103480


Doubleday Z, Clarke S, Li X, Pecl G, Ward T, Battaglene S, Frusher S, Gibbs P, Hobday A, Hutchinson N, Jennings S, Spooner D, Stocklosa R (2013) Assessing the risk of climate change to aquaculture: a case study from south-eastern Australia. Aquaculture Environment Interactions 3: 163-175. Print ISSN: 1869-215X; Online ISSN: 1869-7534. DOI: 10.3354/aei00058

Norman-Lopez A, Plagányi ÉE, Skewes T, Poloczanska E, Dennis D, Gibbs M and Bayliss P (2013) Linking physiological, population and socio-economic assessments of climate change impacts on fisheries. Fisheries Research 148:18-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2012.02.026

Nursey Bray, Melissa, Kevin O’Toole, Marcus Haward M. Joanna Vince, Tim Smith Michael Scott, Beverley Clarke, Nick Harvey (2013) Science into policy? Discourse, coastal management and knowledge, Environmental Science & Policy DOI :

Plagányi, É.E., van Putten, I., Hutton, T., Deng, R., Dennis, D., Hutton, T., Pascoe, S., Skewes, T. and R. Campbell (2013) Integrating indigenous livelihood and lifestyle objectives in managing a natural resource. P Natl Acad Sci USA 110( 9): 3639-44

van Putten IE, Jennings S, Frusher S, Gardner C, Haward M, Hobday AJ, Nursey-Bray M, Pecl G, Punt A, Revill H (2013). Building blocks of economic resilience to climate change: A fisheries example. Regional Environmental Change 13:1313–1323, DOI 10.1007/s10113-013-0456-0


Boschetti, F.; Richert, C.; Walker, I; Price, J. and Dutra, L.X.C. (2012) Assessing attitudes and cognitive styles of stakeholders in environmental projects involving computer modelling. Ecological Modelling 247, pp. 98-111.

Griffith GP, Fulton EA, Gorton R and Richardson A (2012) Predicting multiple human effects on the marine ecosystem. Conservation Biology, 26: 1145-1152 DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2012.01937.x

Madin EMP, Ban NC, Doubleday ZA, Holmes TH, Pecl GT, Smith F (2012) Socio-economic and management implications of range-shifting species in marine systems. Global Environmental Change 22 (2012) 137–146 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.008

Myers S, Thomsen DC, Tarte D, Dutra LXC, Ellis N, Thébaud O, Nursey-Bray M and Smith TF (2012) Adaptive Learning and Coastal Management in South East Queensland, Australia. In: R. Kenchington, L. Sotcker and D. Wood (eds). Sustainable Coastal Management and Climate Adaptation: Global Lessons from Regional Approaches. CSIRO Publishing, Canberra, pp. 157-176 (ISBN: 978-1-4665-7186-0).

Nursey-Bray, M, Pecl G, Frusher, S, Gardner, C, Haward, M, Hobday, A, Jennings, S, Punt, A, Revill, H, van Putten, I (2012)Communicating climate change: climate change risk perceptions and rock lobster fishers, Tasmania, Marine Policy 36 (2012) 753–759 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpol.2011.10.015

van Putten, I., Lalancette, A., Bayliss, P., Dennis, D., Hutton, T., Norman- López, A., Pascoe, S., Plagányi, É. and T. Skewes. (2012) A Bayesian model of factors influencing indigenous participation in the Torres Strait tropical rocklobster fishery. Marine Policy 37: 96-105


Dutra LXC, Ellis N, Boschetti F, Dichmont C, de la Mare W, Perez P (2011) Client Report: Healthy Waterways Management Strategy Evaluation: Learning and decision making within an adaptive framework – Final Report. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Cleveland, 76 p.

Dutra LXC, Haworth RJ and Taboada MB (2011) An integrated approach to tourism planning in a developing nation: a case study from Beloi (Timor-Leste). In D. Dredge. and J. Jenkins (eds.) Stories of Practice: Tourism Planning and Policy. Ashgate, Abingdon, pp 269-294. (ISBN: 978-0-7546-7982-0).

Fulton EA (2011) Interesting times: winners and losers and system shifts under climate change around Australia. ICES Journal Marine Science 68: 1329-1342. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr032

Johnson CR, Banks SC, Barrett NS, Cazzasus F, Dunstan PK, Edgar GJ, Frusher SD, Gardner C, Helidoniotis F, Hill KL, Holbrook NJ, Hosie GW, Last PR, Ling SD, Melbourne-Thomas J, Miller K, Pecl GT, Richardson AJ, Ridgway KR, Rintoul SR, Ritz DA, Ross J, Sanderson C, Shepherd S, Slotwinski A, Swadling KM, Tawd N (2011) Climate change cascades: shifts in oceanography, species’ ranges and marine community dynamics in eastern Tasmania. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 400 (2011) 17–32. DOI: 10.1016/j.jembe.2011.02.032

Last P, White W, Gledhill D, Hobday A, Brown R, Edgar G, Pecl G (2011) Long-term shifts in abundance and distribution of a temperate fish fauna: a response to climate change and fishing practices. Global Ecology and Biogeography 20(1): 58-72. DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00575.x

Plagányi E, Bell J, Bustamante R, Dambacher JM, Dennis D, Dichmont C, Dutra LXC, Fulton E, Hobday A, van Putten I, Smith, F, Smith T, Zhou S (2011) Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic systems: a review of analytical tools and management implications. Marine and Freshwater Research 62(9), pp. 1132-1147.

Plagányi ÉE, Weeks S, Skewes T, Gibbs M, Poloczanska E, Norman-Lopez A, Blamey L, Soares M and Robinson W (2011) Assessing the adequacy of current fisheries management under changing climate: a southern synopsis. ICES Journal of Marine Science 68: 1305-1317. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr049


André J, Haddon M, Pecl GT (2010) Modelling climate-change-induced nonlinear thresholds in cephalopod population dynamics. Global Change 16(10): 2866-2875. DOI:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02223.x

Brown CJ, Fulton EA, Hobday AJ, Matear R, Possingham HP, Bulman C, Christensen V, Forrest RE, Gehrke PC, Gribble NA, Griffiths SP, Lozano-Montes H, Martin JM, Metcalf S, Okey TA, Watson R and Richardson AJ (2010) Effects of climate-driven primary production change on marine food webs: implications for fisheries and conservation. Global Change Biology, 16: 1194-1212. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02046.x)

Dutra LXC, de la Mare W, Perez P, Ellis N, Tickell S, Cannard T, Thebaud O, Pascual P, Bayliss P, Moeseneder C, Dichmont C, Boschetti F, Pascoe S (2010) Client Report: Healthy Waterways Management Strategy Evaluation: Scoping Study for the Development of a 'catchment-to-coast' MSE in SE Queensland - Phase 2 – Final Report. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Cleveland, 131 p.


Pecl GT and Jackson GD (2008) The potential impacts of climate change on inshore squid: biology, ecology and fisheries. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 18: 373-385. DOI: 10.1007/s11160-007-9077-3


Fulton EA and Gorton R (2014) Adaptive Futures for SE Australian Fisheries & Aquaculture: Climate Adaptation Simulations. CSIRO, Australia.

Jennings S, Pascoe S, Norman-Lopez A, Le Bouhellec B, Hall-Aspland S, Sullivan A and Pecl G (2012) Identifying management objectives hierarchies and weightings for four key fisheries in South Eastern Australia. Fisheries Research and Development Corporation, Project 2009/073

Pecl GT, Ward T, Doubleday Z, Clarke S, Day J, Dixon C, Frusher S, Gibbs P, Hobday A, Hutchinson N, Jennings S, Jones K, Li X, Spooner D, and Stoklosa R (2011) Risk Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change for Key Marine Species in South Eastern Australia. Part 1: Fisheries and Aquaculture Risk Assessment. Fisheries Research and Development Corporation, Project 2009/070.

Pecl G, Frusher S, Gardner C, Haward M, Hobday A, Jennings S, Nursey-Bray M, Punt A, Revill H, van Putten I (2009) The east coast Tasmanian rock lobster fishery – vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation response options. Report to Dept of Climate Change, Australia.

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